Do MES and SPY Move Together on 1-minute Charts?
Educational reference. Measured from recorded market data through September 4, 2026. Not a forecast.
Micro E-mini S&P 500 and SPDR S&P 500 ETF are often assumed to move together. This measures it against 16,508 time-aligned 1-minute bars over the last 45 days — no opinion, just what the two actually did.
| Bars where both moved | 14,306 |
|---|---|
| … and moved the same direction | 12,890 (90.1%) |
| Correlation of bar-to-bar changes | +0.917 |
A coin flip would be 50%. At 90.1% and a correlation of +0.917, these two have a strong tendency to move together on this timeframe.
Where the relationship breaks down
Prices moving together does not mean everything else does. The indicator pages below measure each reading separately — and momentum, trend strength and volatility frequently disagree even when price does not.
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How this was measured
Every 1-minute bar recorded for both instruments in the last 45 days was aligned by timestamp. Bars where either did not move are excluded from the direction figure, since a flat bar agrees with nothing. Correlation is measured on bar-to-bar changes, not on price levels — two markets can both drift upward for unrelated reasons, and correlating levels would call that a relationship.