CL 30-Minute MAMA: Prediction vs What Actually Happened, September 28 2026 10:00 PM ET
The MESA Adaptive Moving Average changes its speed with the market's own cycle, with FAMA following more slowly. At 10:00 PM ET on Monday, September 28, LiveCharts.AI predicted where MAMA would go over the next 29 30-minute bars of Crude Oil. The second chart shows the MAMA values the market actually produced over the same window. Both panels share one scale, so the shapes can be compared directly.
| Per-bar direction agreement | 20/29 bars — 69.0% |
| Same side of the starting value | 18/29 bars — 62.1% |
| Bars predicted | 29 × 30-minute |
| MAMA at prediction time | 93.18 |
| Where it actually ended | 91.02 |
| Where the prediction ended | 92.06 |
| Size of the move | predicted 1.12 vs actual 2.17 (0.52×) |
| How closely the shapes match | 0.81 (1.00 = identical) |
How this page is selected
Four measurements on the MAMA line have to agree for a window to be shown. Per-bar direction asks, for each interval, whether the prediction and the actual reading moved the same way — here 69.0%. Same side asks whether both stayed on the same side of the starting value — here 62.1%. Size compares how far each travelled — here 0.52×. Shape measures how closely the two lines follow each other overall — here 0.81, where 1.00 would be identical. All four have to pass; agreeing on direction while badly missing the size or the shape is not a match.
What it does and does not say
This is one recorded window, selected because the paths agreed. It is not a typical result, not an average, and not a claim about future accuracy. The prediction shown here had fully matured before this page was written, and was compared against recorded market data after the fact. Live predictions are part of the LiveCharts.AI platform and are not published here.