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MNQ 45-minute projections, measured

Educational reference. Measured from 4,085 completed 45-minute windows, the most recent ending Friday, October 2, 2026.

A LiveCharts.AI chart showing past bars and the predicted window — Example screenshot of the LiveCharts.AI app from June 2026 — an illustration only. Any prediction lines on it are not current; today's and tomorrow's predictions are only in the live app.

Across 4,085 completed 45-minute windows on MNQ, the projection ended on the correct side of the starting price in 53.2% of them. The median difference between the projected and actual closing price at the final bar was 78.2 points, measured against a median actual move of 21.5 points.

Period	Completed windows	Ended on the projected side	Bar-to-bar agreement (median)	Median final-bar difference	Median actual move
Last 24 hours	1,250	51.3%	50.0%	100.5	24.6
Last 7 days	4,085	53.2%	50.0%	78.2	21.5
Last 30 days	4,085	53.2%	50.0%	78.2	21.5
All recorded	4,085	53.2%	50.0%	78.2	21.5

Reading these two measures together

Bar-to-bar agreement — 50.0% here — counts how often the projection and the market moved the same way from one bar to the next. Ending on the projected side, 53.2%, asks the different question of whether the window finished where the projection pointed. The two measure different things, and a projection can track short-term movement closely while still finishing some distance from the actual close.

In 18% of completed windows the projected move was smaller than the move that actually occurred, so the projection understated the size of the move more often than it overstated it.

What is counted here

Every matured window is included — nothing is selected. A window is counted only once its entire projected span is in the past. The individual comparison pages listed below are a deliberately chosen subset, published only where the projection tracked the market closely on three separate measures; they are worked examples and are not the sample behind the figures above.

Nothing on this page is a live projection, and none of it describes what any future window will do.

Method

Each window is one recorded projection of 45-minute closing prices compared against the closes that actually printed over the same span. Both the projected and actual finishing prices are measured from the price at the moment the projection was made. Windows shorter than 20 bars, and windows where the market finished exactly level, are excluded.

Individual comparisons

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Questions traders ask

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