MES (Micro S&P 500 Futures) DM: which timeframe is most reliable?
Micro E-mini S&P 500 — DM prediction accuracy on each timeframe, measured.
| Timeframe | Confidence | Position | Directional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | 44.2% | 62.3% | 98.0% |
| 5 Minute | 55.4% | 55.3% | 73.3% |
| 10 Minute | 83.6% | 76.4% | 73.3% |
| 15 Minute | 61.5% | 59.7% | 36.7% |
| 30 Minute | 51.3% | 56.5% | 90.0% |
| 1 Hour | 50.7% | 42.6% | 76.7% |
Track record: does the ADX / DMI prediction call the direction?
| Measured on | Direction right | vs a simple guess | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 minute chart, 1 hour ahead | 68% | +28% | 297 |
| 1 hour chart, 12 hours ahead | 59% | +15% | 271 |
| 5 minute chart, 30 minutes ahead | 57% | +9% | 297 |
A recent finished prediction: made Oct 19, 1:20 PM ET with MES's ADX / DMI at 12.81, it said higher 1 hour later (15.08); it was at 19.06 — the direction the prediction called.
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
On directional accuracy the strongest of these is 1 Minute at 98.0%. A slower frame usually sets context while a faster one decides timing, so the most accurate frame is not always the one to trade.
How to read this
Directional accuracy is how often the projected direction proved right; position accuracy is how closely the projected path tracked what actually happened. Confidence is LiveCharts.AI's own read. The live prediction itself is generated inside the platform.
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