ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) DM: which timeframe is most reliable?
E-mini S&P 500 — DM prediction accuracy on each timeframe, measured.
| Timeframe | Confidence | Position | Directional |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | 54.1% | 74.8% | 96.7% |
| 15 Minute | 55.5% | 55.9% | 86.7% |
| 1 Hour | 39.6% | 53.2% | 73.3% |
Track record: does the ADX / DMI prediction call the direction?
| Measured on | Direction right | vs a simple guess | Predictions |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 minute chart, 1 hour ahead | 67% | +25% | 297 |
| 1 hour chart, 12 hours ahead | 58% | +13% | 271 |
| 5 minute chart, 30 minutes ahead | 57% | +9% | 297 |
A recent finished prediction: made Oct 19, 11:30 AM ET with ES's ADX / DMI at 32.96, it said lower 1 hour later (30.16); it was at 18.65 — the direction the prediction called.
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
On directional accuracy the strongest of these is 1 Minute at 96.7%. A slower frame usually sets context while a faster one decides timing, so the most accurate frame is not always the one to trade.
How to read this
Directional accuracy is how often the projected direction proved right; position accuracy is how closely the projected path tracked what actually happened. Confidence is LiveCharts.AI's own read. The live prediction itself is generated inside the platform.
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