MES 5-Minute: Forecast vs What Actually Happened, August 28 2026 6:54 AM ET
At 6:54 AM ET on Friday, August 28, LiveCharts.AI projected the next 30 5-minute bars of Micro E-mini S&P 500. The chart below that shows what the market actually did over the same window. Both panels use the identical price scale, so the shapes can be compared directly.
| Per-bar direction agreement | 16/26 bars — 61.5% |
| Net direction from start | 23/30 bars — 76.7% |
| Bars projected | 30 × 5-minute |
| Price at forecast time | 7,741.50 |
| Where it actually ended | 7,735.50 |
| Where the projection ended | 7,737.88 |
| Size of the move | projected 3.62 vs actual 6.00 (0.60×) |
How this page is selected
Two measurements have to agree for a window to be shown. Per-bar direction asks, for each interval, whether the projection and the market moved the same way from the previous bar — here 61.5%. Net direction asks whether both were on the same side of the starting price — here 76.7%. A third measurement checks the SIZE of the move: the projected distance travelled against the actual, here 0.60×. A window has to satisfy all three to appear — agreeing on direction while badly missing the size is not a match.
What it does and does not say
This is one recorded window, selected because the paths agreed. It is not a typical result, not an average, and not a claim about future accuracy. Aggregate measurements across all recorded forecasts are the honest place to judge accuracy overall.
The forecast shown here has fully matured and was verified against actual prices after the fact. Live projections are part of the LiveCharts.AI platform and are not published here.