ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) Opening Range Breakout on the 5 Minute Chart: Prediction vs What Happened, October 16, 2026
At 9:30 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, the LiveCharts.AI 5 minute prediction for E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) put the first 30 minutes inside 7,794.00–7,814.00. The actual 30 minute opening range on the 5 minute chart was 7,779.75–7,803.25 (23.50 points), and the first 5 minute close outside it came below at 10:30 AM. The prediction made at 10:00 AM had its first close outside the range below at 10:30 AM.
Opening range breakout (ORB) traders mark the high and low of the first 30 minutes after the 9:30 AM ET cash open, then watch which side gives way first. This page shows what the recorded 5 minute predictions said and what the 5 minute chart then did.
The 30 minute opening range: predicted at 9:30 AM vs actual
| Predicted at 9:30 AM | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| High, 9:30–10:00 AM | 7,814.00 | 7,803.25 |
| Low, 9:30–10:00 AM | 7,794.00 | 7,779.75 |
| Size of the range | 20.00 pts | 23.50 pts |
| First 5 minute close outside the range | below at 10:30 AM (made 10:00 AM) | below at 10:30 AM |
The 9:30 AM prediction was made before the range existed, so it is the test of the range itself. The 10:00 AM prediction was made after the range was complete, so it is the like for like test of which side breaks first.
Every ES session since October 6: which side of the 30 minute range broke first (5 minute chart)
The 10:00 AM prediction against the first actual 5 minute close outside the range, through 12:30 PM, every session since the current prediction model began on October 6. On sessions with a break, the predicted side and the actual side were the same on 5 of 9.
| Session | 30 min range (pts) | Actual first break | Predicted at 10:00 AM | Same side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 16 | 23.50 | below at 10:30 AM | below at 10:30 AM | yes |
| Thu Oct 15 | 30.50 | above at 10:20 AM | below at 11:10 AM | no |
| Wed Oct 14 | 31.25 | below at 10:10 AM | below at 10:10 AM | yes |
| Tue Oct 13 | 16.25 | below at 10:35 AM | above at 11:45 AM | no |
| Mon Oct 12 | 11.50 | below at 10:10 AM | below at 11:55 AM | yes |
| Fri Oct 9 | 17.25 | above at 10:55 AM | below at 12:10 PM | no |
| Thu Oct 8 | 13.25 | above at 10:10 AM | above at 10:30 AM | yes |
| Wed Oct 7 | 21.25 | below at 10:45 AM | none | no |
| Tue Oct 6 | 20.75 | above at 10:05 AM | above at 10:10 AM | yes |
The micro contract MES on the same sessions: 6 of 9 break sessions on the same side.
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
What it does and does not say
This is a record of what was predicted and what happened. It is not a rule for trading the opening range, and the session counts above are too few to describe how any future session will behave.