How Far Is ES (S&P 500 E-mini Futures) From Its 50 EMA on the 5 Minute Chart? Prediction vs Actual, October 16, 2026
On Friday, October 16, 2026, E-mini S&P 500 futures (ES) was at least 1 ATR away from its 50 period EMA on the 5 minute chart at 11 of 11 checks. At 6 of those 11, the LiveCharts.AI prediction had the direction of the next hour right.
“How far is ES from the 50 EMA?” The distance is just a number: the 5 minute close minus the 50 period exponential moving average of the 5 minute closes, in points and in multiples of the 14 period ATR (Wilder) of the same bars. The page does not say what a distance means. It sets each recorded next hour prediction beside what ES then did, at the checks where the close was at least 1 ATR away.
Every check on October 16, 2026 (5 minute chart)
| Time (ET) | ES | 50 EMA | Distance (points) | Distance (ATRs) | Next hour, pred / actual | Same |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10:00 AM | 7,783.75 | 7,798.96 | -15.21 | -2.4 | down / up | no |
| 10:30 AM | 7,778.75 | 7,795.14 | -16.39 | -2.3 | down / down | yes |
| 11:00 AM | 7,784.50 | 7,793.54 | -9.04 | -1.2 | down / down | yes |
| 11:30 AM | 7,757.25 | 7,787.66 | -30.41 | -3.7 | up / down | no |
| 12:00 PM | 7,744.75 | 7,780.88 | -36.13 | -4.6 | down / down | yes |
| 12:30 PM | 7,745.00 | 7,773.27 | -28.27 | -3.7 | down / down | yes |
| 1:00 PM | 7,732.50 | 7,764.91 | -32.41 | -4.4 | down / down | yes |
| 1:30 PM | 7,711.00 | 7,752.72 | -41.72 | -4.7 | up / down | no |
| 2:00 PM | 7,703.25 | 7,744.12 | -40.87 | -4.4 | down / down | yes |
| 2:30 PM | 7,691.00 | 7,733.93 | -42.93 | -4.5 | down / up | no |
| 3:00 PM | 7,688.00 | 7,724.74 | -36.74 | -3.9 | down / up | no |
Every ES session since October 6 (5 minute chart)
Across 9 sessions since the current prediction model began on October 6, ES was at least 1 ATR from its 50 EMA at 74 of 99 checks. At those 74, the predicted next hour direction matched at 39 of 74. Simply assuming ES moves back toward the 50 EMA matched at 33 of 74. At all 99 checks, whatever the distance, the predicted direction matched at 54.
On MES, the Micro S&P 500 futures contract, at checks at least 1 ATR from its own 50 EMA the predicted next hour direction matched on 41 of 75.
| Session | Checks | At least 1 ATR away | Prediction right | Back toward the EMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 16 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 3 |
| Thu Oct 15 | 11 | 8 | 2 | 5 |
| Wed Oct 14 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| Tue Oct 13 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| Mon Oct 12 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Fri Oct 9 | 11 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Thu Oct 8 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| Wed Oct 7 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 5 |
| Tue Oct 6 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 3 |
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
What it does and does not say
This page records the distance of ES from its 50 EMA and the predictions made at those moments. It does not describe any distance as too far or as a reason to act, and the sessions shown are too few to describe the predictions in general.