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RTY (Russell 2000 E-mini Futures) Opening Range Breakout on the 5 Minute Chart: Prediction vs What Happened, October 16, 2026

Educational reference. Everything on this page is the RTY 5 minute chart. Data through Friday, October 16, 2026, 12:30 PM ET. Recorded predictions compared with recorded market data, for learning purposes, not trading advice.

At 9:30 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, the LiveCharts.AI 5 minute prediction for E-mini Russell 2000 futures (RTY) put the first 30 minutes inside 2,780.70–2,786.80. The actual 30 minute opening range on the 5 minute chart was 2,779.00–2,789.70 (10.70 points), and the first 5 minute close outside it came below at 10:10 AM. The prediction made at 10:00 AM had its first close outside the range below at 10:05 AM.

Opening range breakout (ORB) traders mark the high and low of the first 30 minutes after the 9:30 AM ET cash open, then watch which side gives way first. This page shows what the recorded 5 minute predictions said and what the 5 minute chart then did.

RTY 5 minute chart, October 16, 2026 — 9:30 AM to 12:30 PM ET
What happened (5 minute closes)Prediction made 9:30 AMPrediction made 10:00 AMActual 30 minute opening range
2,7492,7622,7762,7909:3010:0010:3011:0011:3012:0012:30

The 30 minute opening range: predicted at 9:30 AM vs actual

Predicted at 9:30 AMActual
High, 9:30–10:00 AM2,786.802,789.70
Low, 9:30–10:00 AM2,780.702,779.00
Size of the range6.10 pts10.70 pts
First 5 minute close outside the rangebelow at 10:05 AM (made 10:00 AM)below at 10:10 AM

The 9:30 AM prediction was made before the range existed, so it is the test of the range itself. The 10:00 AM prediction was made after the range was complete, so it is the like for like test of which side breaks first.

EXAMPLE SCREENSHOT · June 2026A LiveCharts.AI chart showing past bars and the predicted window
Example screenshot of the LiveCharts.AI app from June 2026 — an illustration only. Any prediction lines on it are not current; today's and tomorrow's predictions are only in the live app.

Every RTY session since October 6: which side of the 30 minute range broke first (5 minute chart)

The 10:00 AM prediction against the first actual 5 minute close outside the range, through 12:30 PM, every session since the current prediction model began on October 6. On sessions with a break, the predicted side and the actual side were the same on 6 of 8.

Session30 min range (pts)Actual first breakPredicted at 10:00 AMSame side
Fri Oct 1610.70below at 10:10 AMbelow at 10:05 AMyes
Thu Oct 1512.70above at 10:05 AMnoneno
Wed Oct 1414.40below at 10:05 AMbelow at 10:05 AMyes
Tue Oct 1322.30below at 10:05 AMbelow at 10:10 AMyes
Mon Oct 129.00below at 10:05 AMbelow at 11:05 AMyes
Fri Oct 914.10nonenone—
Thu Oct 812.60below at 10:50 AMabove at 12:25 PMno
Wed Oct 711.40below at 10:15 AMbelow at 12:00 PMyes
Tue Oct 615.10below at 10:15 AMbelow at 10:10 AMyes

The micro contract M2K on the same sessions: 6 of 8 break sessions on the same side.

Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.

What it does and does not say

This is a record of what was predicted and what happened. It is not a rule for trading the opening range, and the session counts above are too few to describe how any future session will behave.

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