Will NG (Natural Gas Futures) Hold VWAP? Prediction vs What Happened on the 5 Minute Chart, October 15, 2026
On Thursday, October 15, 2026, the LiveCharts.AI 5 minute predictions for Henry Hub natural gas futures (NG) were checked against session VWAP every 30 minutes from 9:30 AM to 1:30 PM ET. Whether NG would hold its side of VWAP for the next hour was predicted correctly at 8 of 9 checks. NG closed the daytime session at 3.234, 0.007 dollars below VWAP (3.241).
“Will NG hold VWAP?” is the question behind most VWAP bounce, VWAP fade and VWAP reclaim searches. This page answers it with recorded 5 minute predictions: at each check, the next twelve predicted 5 minute closes say whether NG stays on its side of VWAP for the next hour, and the next twelve actual 5 minute closes show whether it did. VWAP is computed from the 5 minute bars from 9:00 AM; the prediction is read against VWAP as it stood at the check. NG trades almost around the clock; this page uses its main daytime session, 9:00 AM to 2:30 PM ET, which ends at the 2:30 PM NYMEX settlement time.
Every check on October 15, 2026 (5 minute chart)
| Time (ET) | NG | VWAP | Side | Predicted next hour | Actual next hour | Same |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:30 AM | 3.234 | 3.239 | below | crosses | crossed | yes |
| 10:00 AM | 3.250 | 3.237 | above | crosses | crossed | yes |
| 10:30 AM | 3.254 | 3.245 | above | holds | crossed | no |
| 11:00 AM | 3.263 | 3.254 | above | crosses | crossed | yes |
| 11:30 AM | 3.253 | 3.255 | below | crosses | crossed | yes |
| 12:00 PM | 3.220 | 3.253 | below | holds | held | yes |
| 12:30 PM | 3.208 | 3.249 | below | holds | held | yes |
| 1:00 PM | 3.213 | 3.246 | below | holds | held | yes |
| 1:30 PM | 3.220 | 3.244 | below | holds | held | yes |
Every NG session since October 6 (5 minute chart)
Across 72 checks on 8 sessions since the current prediction model began on October 6, the hold or cross prediction matched on 55 of 72. NG actually held its side for the full hour at 44 of the 72 checks; the predictions said it would at 55. Simply saying “it holds” at every check would have matched on 44 of 72. The side of VWAP one hour later was predicted correctly at 56 of 72.
On MNG, the Micro Natural Gas futures contract, the same checks on the same sessions matched on 49 of 63 (7 sessions; MNG has complete recorded data on 7 of the 8 sessions).
| Session | Checks | Predicted to hold | Actually held | Hold or cross right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 15 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 8 |
| Wed Oct 14 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Tue Oct 13 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Mon Oct 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Fri Oct 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 8 |
| Thu Oct 8 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| Wed Oct 7 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 6 |
| Tue Oct 6 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
What it does and does not say
This is a record of predictions next to measured VWAP. It is not a VWAP strategy and does not say what to do at VWAP.