NG (Natural Gas Futures) Supertrend, Donchian, Aroon and 5 More Indicators on the 5 Minute Chart: Prediction vs Actual, October 15, 2026
On Thursday, October 15, 2026, at 9 checks from 9:30 AM to 1:30 PM ET, eight indicators of Henry Hub natural gas futures (NG) were computed one hour ahead from the LiveCharts.AI predicted 5 minute bars. The predicted state matched the state that printed at 42 of 72 readings.
These eight indicators are not predicted by LiveCharts.AI directly. This page computes each of them from our own 5 minute bars with the twelve predicted 5 minute bars of the next hour added on the end, and sets the result beside the same indicator computed from the twelve bars that actually printed. Each is read as a simple two way state: Supertrend (10, 3) close above or below the line; Donchian channel (20) close in the upper or lower half; Aroon (25) up leading or down leading; Stochastic RSI (14) above 50 or not; Hull moving average (20) rising or not; Choppiness index (14) above 50 or not; Fisher transform (10) above 0 or not; Elder ray bull power (13) above 0 or not.
October 15, 2026: the state one hour ahead, predicted / actual (5 minute chart)
| Indicator | From 9:30 AM | From 1:30 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Supertrend | below / below yes | below / below yes |
| Donchian | upper half / upper half yes | upper half / upper half yes |
| Aroon | up leads / up leads yes | up leads / up leads yes |
| Stochastic RSI | 50 or below / above 50 | above 50 / above 50 yes |
| Hull MA | rising / rising yes | rising / rising yes |
| Choppiness | 50 or below / above 50 | above 50 / above 50 yes |
| Fisher | above 0 / above 0 yes | 0 or below / above 0 |
| Elder bull power | 0 or below / above 0 | above 0 / above 0 yes |
Every NG session since October 6 (5 minute chart)
Across 648 indicator readings (81 checks × 8 indicators) on 9 sessions since the current prediction model began on October 6, the predicted state one hour ahead matched the state that printed at 388 of 648. Simply assuming every state stays as it is matched at 385 of 648. The state actually changed within the hour at 263 readings; the prediction had the new state at 117 of those.
On MNG, the Micro Natural Gas futures contract, the predicted states one hour ahead matched (all eight indicators together) on 343 of 576 (MNG has complete recorded data on 8 of the 9 sessions).
| Indicator | Prediction right | Stays as it is right |
|---|---|---|
| Supertrend | 65 of 81 | 65 of 81 |
| Donchian | 48 of 81 | 50 of 81 |
| Aroon | 63 of 81 | 50 of 81 |
| Stochastic RSI | 40 of 81 | 39 of 81 |
| Hull MA | 33 of 81 | 40 of 81 |
| Choppiness | 36 of 81 | 43 of 81 |
| Fisher | 48 of 81 | 44 of 81 |
| Elder bull power | 55 of 81 | 54 of 81 |
| Session | Readings | Prediction right | Stays as it is right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 16 | 72 | 33 | 41 |
| Thu Oct 15 | 72 | 42 | 37 |
| Wed Oct 14 | 72 | 42 | 34 |
| Tue Oct 13 | 72 | 56 | 52 |
| Mon Oct 12 | 72 | 38 | 41 |
| Fri Oct 9 | 72 | 49 | 49 |
| Thu Oct 8 | 72 | 43 | 49 |
| Wed Oct 7 | 72 | 39 | 36 |
| Tue Oct 6 | 72 | 46 | 46 |
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
What it does and does not say
This page computes eight indicators from recorded NG 5 minute bars and from the predicted bars. It does not describe any indicator state as a reason to act, and the sessions shown are too few to describe the predictions in general.