How Far Is NG (Natural Gas Futures) From Its 50 EMA on the 5 Minute Chart? Prediction vs Actual, October 26, 2026
On Monday, October 26, 2026, Henry Hub natural gas futures (NG) was at least 1 ATR away from its 50 period EMA on the 5 minute chart at 8 of 9 checks. At 5 of those 8, the LiveCharts.AI prediction had the direction of the next hour right.
“How far is NG from the 50 EMA?” The distance is just a number: the 5 minute close minus the 50 period exponential moving average of the 5 minute closes, in dollars and in multiples of the 14 period ATR (Wilder) of the same bars. The page does not say what a distance means. It sets each recorded next hour prediction beside what NG then did, at the checks where the close was at least 1 ATR away.
Every check on October 26, 2026 (5 minute chart)
| Time (ET) | NG | 50 EMA | Distance (dollars) | Distance (ATRs) | Next hour, pred / actual | Same |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:30 AM | 2.561 | 2.535 | +0.026 | +1.4 | up / down | no |
| 10:00 AM | 2.539 | 2.538 | +0.001 | +0.1 | — | — |
| 10:30 AM | 2.557 | 2.539 | +0.018 | +1.3 | up / up | yes |
| 11:00 AM | 2.582 | 2.547 | +0.035 | +2.7 | up / up | yes |
| 11:30 AM | 2.609 | 2.557 | +0.052 | +4.2 | up / up | yes |
| 12:00 PM | 2.601 | 2.565 | +0.036 | +2.8 | up / up | yes |
| 12:30 PM | 2.622 | 2.575 | +0.047 | +2.9 | down / down | yes |
| 1:00 PM | 2.631 | 2.586 | +0.045 | +3.2 | up / down | no |
| 1:30 PM | 2.608 | 2.593 | +0.015 | +1.2 | up / down | no |
Every NG session since October 6 (5 minute chart)
Across 15 sessions since the current prediction model began on October 6, NG was at least 1 ATR from its 50 EMA at 104 of 135 checks. At those 104, the predicted next hour direction matched at 54 of 104. Simply assuming NG moves back toward the 50 EMA matched at 53 of 104. At all 135 checks, whatever the distance, the predicted direction matched at 73.
On MNG, the Micro Natural Gas futures contract, at checks at least 1 ATR from its own 50 EMA the predicted next hour direction matched on 46 of 89 (MNG has complete recorded data on 12 of the 15 sessions).
| Session | Checks | At least 1 ATR away | Prediction right | Back toward the EMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Oct 26 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 4 |
| Fri Oct 23 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Thu Oct 22 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 3 |
| Wed Oct 21 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 2 |
| Tue Oct 20 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Mon Oct 19 | 9 | 9 | 3 | 4 |
| Fri Oct 16 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 6 |
| Thu Oct 15 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| Wed Oct 14 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Tue Oct 13 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 2 |
| Mon Oct 12 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
| Fri Oct 9 | 9 | 9 | 4 | 5 |
| Thu Oct 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 3 |
| Wed Oct 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| Tue Oct 6 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 2 |
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
What it does and does not say
This page records the distance of NG from its 50 EMA and the predictions made at those moments. It does not describe any distance as too far or as a reason to act, and the sessions shown are too few to describe the predictions in general.
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