NQ (Nasdaq 100 E-mini Futures) Opening Range Breakout on the 5 Minute Chart: Prediction vs What Happened, October 16, 2026
At 9:30 AM ET on Friday, October 16, 2026, the LiveCharts.AI 5 minute prediction for E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ) put the first 30 minutes inside 29,981.25–30,078.50. The actual 30 minute opening range on the 5 minute chart was 29,802.25–30,045.75 (243.50 points), and the first 5 minute close outside it came below at 11:05 AM. The prediction made at 10:00 AM had its first close outside the range below at 10:25 AM.
Opening range breakout (ORB) traders mark the high and low of the first 30 minutes after the 9:30 AM ET cash open, then watch which side gives way first. This page shows what the recorded 5 minute predictions said and what the 5 minute chart then did.
The 30 minute opening range: predicted at 9:30 AM vs actual
| Predicted at 9:30 AM | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| High, 9:30–10:00 AM | 30,078.50 | 30,045.75 |
| Low, 9:30–10:00 AM | 29,981.25 | 29,802.25 |
| Size of the range | 97.25 pts | 243.50 pts |
| First 5 minute close outside the range | below at 10:25 AM (made 10:00 AM) | below at 11:05 AM |
The 9:30 AM prediction was made before the range existed, so it is the test of the range itself. The 10:00 AM prediction was made after the range was complete, so it is the like for like test of which side breaks first.
Every NQ session since October 6: which side of the 30 minute range broke first (5 minute chart)
The 10:00 AM prediction against the first actual 5 minute close outside the range, through 12:30 PM, every session since the current prediction model began on October 6. On sessions with a break, the predicted side and the actual side were the same on 4 of 7.
| Session | 30 min range (pts) | Actual first break | Predicted at 10:00 AM | Same side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 16 | 243.50 | below at 11:05 AM | below at 10:25 AM | yes |
| Thu Oct 15 | 237.00 | above at 10:45 AM | below at 10:20 AM | no |
| Wed Oct 14 | 195.00 | below at 10:40 AM | below at 10:05 AM | yes |
| Tue Oct 13 | 215.00 | none | above at 10:15 AM | — |
| Mon Oct 12 | 112.75 | below at 10:10 AM | below at 10:05 AM | yes |
| Fri Oct 9 | 184.50 | none | below at 11:05 AM | — |
| Thu Oct 8 | 119.25 | above at 10:20 AM | below at 11:05 AM | no |
| Wed Oct 7 | 132.50 | above at 11:15 AM | none | no |
| Tue Oct 6 | 109.25 | above at 10:10 AM | above at 12:15 PM | yes |
The micro contract MNQ on the same sessions: 4 of 7 break sessions on the same side.
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
What it does and does not say
This is a record of what was predicted and what happened. It is not a rule for trading the opening range, and the session counts above are too few to describe how any future session will behave.