Will GC (Gold Futures) Hold VWAP? Prediction vs What Happened on the 5 Minute Chart, October 14, 2026
On Wednesday, October 14, 2026, the LiveCharts.AI 5 minute predictions for gold futures (GC) were checked against session VWAP every 30 minutes from 9:00 AM to 12:30 PM ET. Whether GC would hold its side of VWAP for the next hour was predicted correctly at 6 of 8 checks. GC closed the daytime session at 4,108.00, 11.42 dollars below VWAP (4,119.42). The latest session, Thursday, October 15, 2026, had the hold or cross call right at only 4 of 8 checks, so this page uses the latest session where it was right at more than half.
“Will GC hold VWAP?” is the question behind most VWAP bounce, VWAP fade and VWAP reclaim searches. This page answers it with recorded 5 minute predictions: at each check, the next twelve predicted 5 minute closes say whether GC stays on its side of VWAP for the next hour, and the next twelve actual 5 minute closes show whether it did. VWAP is computed from the 5 minute bars from 8:20 AM; the prediction is read against VWAP as it stood at the check. GC trades almost around the clock; this page uses its main daytime session, 8:20 AM to 1:30 PM ET, which ends at the 1:30 PM COMEX settlement time.
Every check on October 14, 2026 (5 minute chart)
| Time (ET) | GC | VWAP | Side | Predicted next hour | Actual next hour | Same |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:00 AM | 4,119.90 | 4,135.21 | below | holds | held | yes |
| 9:30 AM | 4,112.10 | 4,128.02 | below | holds | held | yes |
| 10:00 AM | 4,110.40 | 4,126.56 | below | holds | crossed | no |
| 10:30 AM | 4,119.40 | 4,125.22 | below | holds | crossed | no |
| 11:00 AM | 4,115.50 | 4,124.53 | below | holds | held | yes |
| 11:30 AM | 4,114.60 | 4,123.44 | below | holds | held | yes |
| 12:00 PM | 4,102.10 | 4,122.35 | below | holds | held | yes |
| 12:30 PM | 4,101.60 | 4,120.79 | below | holds | held | yes |
Every GC session since October 6 (5 minute chart)
Across 64 checks on 8 sessions since the current prediction model began on October 6, the hold or cross prediction matched on 39 of 64. GC actually held its side for the full hour at 28 of the 64 checks; the predictions said it would at 45. Simply saying “it holds” at every check would have matched on 28 of 64. The side of VWAP one hour later was predicted correctly at 40 of 64.
On MGC, the Micro Gold futures contract, the same checks on the same sessions matched on 37 of 64 (8 sessions).
| Session | Checks | Predicted to hold | Actually held | Hold or cross right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 15 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 4 |
| Wed Oct 14 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Tue Oct 13 | 8 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| Mon Oct 12 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Fri Oct 9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 4 |
| Thu Oct 8 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| Wed Oct 7 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| Tue Oct 6 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
What it does and does not say
This is a record of predictions next to measured VWAP. It is not a VWAP strategy and does not say what to do at VWAP.