Will CL (Crude Oil Futures) Hold VWAP? Prediction vs What Happened on the 5 Minute Chart, October 15, 2026
On Thursday, October 15, 2026, the LiveCharts.AI 5 minute predictions for WTI crude oil futures (CL) were checked against session VWAP every 30 minutes from 9:30 AM to 1:30 PM ET. Whether CL would hold its side of VWAP for the next hour was predicted correctly at 8 of 9 checks. CL closed the daytime session at 97.92, 0.78 dollars above VWAP (97.14).
“Will CL hold VWAP?” is the question behind most VWAP bounce, VWAP fade and VWAP reclaim searches. This page answers it with recorded 5 minute predictions: at each check, the next twelve predicted 5 minute closes say whether CL stays on its side of VWAP for the next hour, and the next twelve actual 5 minute closes show whether it did. VWAP is computed from the 5 minute bars from 9:00 AM; the prediction is read against VWAP as it stood at the check. CL trades almost around the clock; this page uses its main daytime session, 9:00 AM to 2:30 PM ET, which ends at the 2:30 PM NYMEX settlement time.
Every check on October 15, 2026 (5 minute chart)
| Time (ET) | CL | VWAP | Side | Predicted next hour | Actual next hour | Same |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9:30 AM | 96.21 | 95.89 | above | holds | crossed | no |
| 10:00 AM | 95.88 | 95.88 | below | crosses | crossed | yes |
| 10:30 AM | 96.56 | 96.05 | above | holds | held | yes |
| 11:00 AM | 96.80 | 96.20 | above | holds | held | yes |
| 11:30 AM | 97.62 | 96.42 | above | holds | held | yes |
| 12:00 PM | 97.80 | 96.58 | above | holds | held | yes |
| 12:30 PM | 98.22 | 96.79 | above | holds | held | yes |
| 1:00 PM | 98.13 | 96.90 | above | holds | held | yes |
| 1:30 PM | 98.06 | 96.98 | above | holds | held | yes |
Every CL session since October 6 (5 minute chart)
Across 72 checks on 8 sessions since the current prediction model began on October 6, the hold or cross prediction matched on 45 of 72. CL actually held its side for the full hour at 37 of the 72 checks; the predictions said it would at 56. Simply saying “it holds” at every check would have matched on 37 of 72. The side of VWAP one hour later was predicted correctly at 57 of 72.
On MCL, the Micro Crude Oil futures contract, the same checks on the same sessions matched on 47 of 72 (8 sessions).
| Session | Checks | Predicted to hold | Actually held | Hold or cross right |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu Oct 15 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 8 |
| Wed Oct 14 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Tue Oct 13 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Mon Oct 12 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 |
| Fri Oct 9 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 3 |
| Thu Oct 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Wed Oct 7 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 7 |
| Tue Oct 6 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
What it does and does not say
This is a record of predictions next to measured VWAP. It is not a VWAP strategy and does not say what to do at VWAP.