CL (Crude Oil Futures) Supertrend, Donchian, Aroon and 5 More Indicators on the 5 Minute Chart: Prediction vs Actual, October 16, 2026
On Friday, October 16, 2026, at 9 checks from 9:30 AM to 1:30 PM ET, eight indicators of WTI crude oil futures (CL) were computed one hour ahead from the LiveCharts.AI predicted 5 minute bars. The predicted state matched the state that printed at 46 of 72 readings.
These eight indicators are not predicted by LiveCharts.AI directly. This page computes each of them from our own 5 minute bars with the twelve predicted 5 minute bars of the next hour added on the end, and sets the result beside the same indicator computed from the twelve bars that actually printed. Each is read as a simple two way state: Supertrend (10, 3) close above or below the line; Donchian channel (20) close in the upper or lower half; Aroon (25) up leading or down leading; Stochastic RSI (14) above 50 or not; Hull moving average (20) rising or not; Choppiness index (14) above 50 or not; Fisher transform (10) above 0 or not; Elder ray bull power (13) above 0 or not.
October 16, 2026: the state one hour ahead, predicted / actual (5 minute chart)
| Indicator | From 9:30 AM | From 1:30 PM |
|---|---|---|
| Supertrend | below / below yes | above / above yes |
| Donchian | upper half / lower half | upper half / upper half yes |
| Aroon | up leads / down leads | up leads / up leads yes |
| Stochastic RSI | above 50 / 50 or below | 50 or below / 50 or below yes |
| Hull MA | rising / not rising | not rising / rising |
| Choppiness | 50 or below / 50 or below yes | above 50 / above 50 yes |
| Fisher | above 0 / 0 or below | above 0 / above 0 yes |
| Elder bull power | above 0 / 0 or below | above 0 / above 0 yes |
Every CL session since October 6 (5 minute chart)
Across 648 indicator readings (81 checks × 8 indicators) on 9 sessions since the current prediction model began on October 6, the predicted state one hour ahead matched the state that printed at 419 of 648. Simply assuming every state stays as it is matched at 409 of 648. The state actually changed within the hour at 239 readings; the prediction had the new state at 109 of those.
On MCL, the Micro Crude Oil futures contract, the predicted states one hour ahead matched (all eight indicators together) on 406 of 648.
| Indicator | Prediction right | Stays as it is right |
|---|---|---|
| Supertrend | 68 of 81 | 62 of 81 |
| Donchian | 56 of 81 | 56 of 81 |
| Aroon | 59 of 81 | 60 of 81 |
| Stochastic RSI | 45 of 81 | 38 of 81 |
| Hull MA | 43 of 81 | 43 of 81 |
| Choppiness | 38 of 81 | 44 of 81 |
| Fisher | 51 of 81 | 46 of 81 |
| Elder bull power | 59 of 81 | 60 of 81 |
| Session | Readings | Prediction right | Stays as it is right |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 16 | 72 | 46 | 45 |
| Thu Oct 15 | 72 | 51 | 58 |
| Wed Oct 14 | 72 | 39 | 44 |
| Tue Oct 13 | 72 | 55 | 53 |
| Mon Oct 12 | 72 | 56 | 57 |
| Fri Oct 9 | 72 | 40 | 33 |
| Thu Oct 8 | 72 | 39 | 30 |
| Wed Oct 7 | 72 | 47 | 41 |
| Tue Oct 6 | 72 | 46 | 48 |
Based on LiveCharts.AI's recorded predictions compared with what the market actually did.
What it does and does not say
This page computes eight indicators from recorded CL 5 minute bars and from the predicted bars. It does not describe any indicator state as a reason to act, and the sessions shown are too few to describe the predictions in general.