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How accurate are MACD forecasts?
MACD tracks the relationship between two moving averages of price, so it describes momentum shifting rather than price itself. Forecasting it means projecting where that momentum relationship is heading. Measured across 27 qualifying charts.
| Timeframe | Median directional | Best | Charts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-Minute | 55.0% | 70.0% | 6 |
| 5-Minute | 60.0% | 70.0% | 3 |
| 10-Minute | 60.0% | 63.3% | 4 |
| 15-Minute | 53.3% | 76.7% | 5 |
| 30-Minute | 56.7% | 60.0% | 7 |
| 45-Minute | 68.3% | 70.0% | 2 |
Median and best directional accuracy. “Charts” is how many qualifying charts fed each row — the sample size behind the median, not a page count. Measured, not estimated.
Across every qualifying chart the median directional accuracy for MACD is 56.7%. Accuracy varies more by timeframe than by instrument.
What these numbers are
Directional accuracy is how often the projected direction proved correct, measured against what price actually did. It is not a claim about future performance. The forecasts themselves are produced inside the platform.
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